https://www.sciencedirect.com/scienc...1393512201982X
s shown in Appendix Table 3 if 100% of non-elderly people globally were to be infected without having the benefit of vaccination or other potentially beneficial interventions that were developed and implemented later in the pandemic, a total of 4.7–5.3 million deaths of people 0–69 years old are expected worldwide according to our IFR estimates. This includes 32–98 thousand deaths of people 0–29 years old. Three years after the emergence of SARS-CoV-2, the large majority of the global population has indeed been infected at least once (Ioannidis, 2022) and an estimated 44% had been infected even before the advent of the Omicron wave in fall 2021 (COVID-19 Cumulative Infection Collaborators, 2022). If we assume half of the global non-elderly population infected without the benefit of vaccination or other beneficial interventions, this corresponds to 2.3–2.6 million deaths in people 0–69 years old, including 16–49 thousand deaths of people 0–29 years old. These absolute numbers of fatalities are overall probably modestly higher than seasonal flu fatalities over three typical pre-pandemic years (Ioannidis, 2022) when the entire 0–69 year old population is considered, but they are lower than pre-pandemic years when only the younger age strata are considered. For example, Iuliano et al. (2018) estimate 9243–105,690 deaths for children <5 years old per year based on data from 92 countries for seasonal influenza.
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