Temat: Koronawirus SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19)

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https://www.sciencedirect.com/scienc...1393512201982X
s shown in Appendix Table 3 if 100% of non-elderly people globally were to be infected without having the benefit of vaccination or other potentially beneficial interventions that were developed and implemented later in the pandemic, a total of 4.7–5.3 million deaths of people 0–69 years old are expected worldwide according to our IFR estimates. This includes 32–98 thousand deaths of people 0–29 years old. Three years after the emergence of SARS-CoV-2, the large majority of the global population has indeed been infected at least once (Ioannidis, 2022) and an estimated 44% had been infected even before the advent of the Omicron wave in fall 2021 (COVID-19 Cumulative Infection Collaborators, 2022). If we assume half of the global non-elderly population infected without the benefit of vaccination or other beneficial interventions, this corresponds to 2.3–2.6 million deaths in people 0–69 years old, including 16–49 thousand deaths of people 0–29 years old. These absolute numbers of fatalities are overall probably modestly higher than seasonal flu fatalities over three typical pre-pandemic years (Ioannidis, 2022) when the entire 0–69 year old population is considered, but they are lower than pre-pandemic years when only the younger age strata are considered. For example, Iuliano et al. (2018) estimate 9243–105,690 deaths for children <5 years old per year based on data from 92 countries for seasonal influenza.

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https://www.sciencedirect.com/scienc...64410X22010283
Results
Pfizer and Moderna mRNA COVID-19 vaccines were associated with an excess risk of serious adverse events of special interest of 10.1 and 15.1 per 10,000 vaccinated over placebo baselines of 17.6 and 42.2 (95 % CI −0.4 to 20.6 and −3.6 to 33.8), respectively. Combined, the mRNA vaccines were associated with an excess risk of serious adverse events of special interest of 12.5 per 10,000 vaccinated (95 % CI 2.1 to 22.9); risk ratio 1.43 (95 % CI 1.07 to 1.92). The Pfizer trial exhibited a 36 % higher risk of serious adverse events in the vaccine group; risk difference 18.0 per 10,000 vaccinated (95 % CI 1.2 to 34.9); risk ratio 1.36 (95 % CI 1.02 to 1.83). The Moderna trial exhibited a 6 % higher risk of serious adverse events in the vaccine group: risk difference 7.1 per 10,000 (95 % CI –23.2 to 37.4); risk ratio 1.06 (95 % CI 0.84 to 1.33). Combined, there was a 16 % higher risk of serious adverse events in mRNA vaccine recipients: risk difference 13.2 (95 % CI −3.2 to 29.6); risk ratio 1.16 (95 % CI 0.97 to 1.39).

Discussion
The excess risk of serious adverse events found in our study points to the need for formal harm-benefit analyses, particularly those that are stratified according to risk of serious COVID-19 outcomes. These analyses will require public release of participant level datasets.

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