Reklama
Strona 465 z 465 PierwszaPierwsza ... 365415455463464465
Pokazuje wyniki od 4,641 do 4,646 z 4646

Temat: Bitcoin - wirtualna waluta, realny zysk.

  1. #4641
    Avatar samobujca szany
    Data rejestracji
    2022
    Posty
    41
    Siła reputacji
    0

    Domyślny

    Cytuj Alex Hope napisał Pokaż post
    Cytat został ukryty, ponieważ ignorujesz tego użytkownika. Pokaż cytat.
    Szany mogłeś konta nie usuwać, bo te redbagi za 0 pkt to takie KEKW trochę
    to jest zielony nigdy nie rozdaje redbaguw

    Cytuj Master napisał Pokaż post
    Cytat został ukryty, ponieważ ignorujesz tego użytkownika. Pokaż cytat.
    No na tym generalnie polega zycie zeby [...] kupowac fajne rzeczy
    wiem ze twoje zycie tak wyglada, na szczescie nie moje bo nie jestem prozniakiem


    niestety jeszcze jestem na tyle prozny ze musialem se polehtac ego na mlodierzowym katolickim forum ale pracujemy nad tym pozdrawiam ludzi dobrej woli czymajcie sie na tym kurwidolku, au revoir!


    ps nastepny post gdzies w 2024/25 jak btc bedzie kolejne ath robil (prawdopodobnie ostatnie, bo pewnie w koncu upierdolo krypto cbdc)

  2. #4642
    Avatar Master
    Data rejestracji
    2005
    Wiek
    21
    Posty
    12,930
    Siła reputacji
    26

    Domyślny

    Cytuj samobujca szany napisał Pokaż post
    Cytat został ukryty, ponieważ ignorujesz tego użytkownika. Pokaż cytat.
    na szczescie nie moje bo nie jestem prozniakiem
    Ciekawy sposob mowienia, ze dajesz sie jebac na kase, ale w sumie spk nic mi do tego
    The bigger they are,
    The harder they fall

  3. Reklama
  4. #4643
    Avatar Tibiarz
    Data rejestracji
    2008
    Położenie
    Tibiantis
    Wiek
    2
    Posty
    13,703
    Siła reputacji
    24

    Domyślny

    Cytuj samobujca szany napisał Pokaż post
    Cytat został ukryty, ponieważ ignorujesz tego użytkownika. Pokaż cytat.
    (26 days ago) 14.10.2022 16:59:58 UTC

    Comprehensive Update - October 14th, 2022

    TLDR: Further 6-9 months sideways at best if not bearish. Bottom likely not in. If you are busy and don't read this, you will still get signals that price in this stuff. So you don't have to read, but it is a good approach in life to know why you believe what you believe. Potential reading time 20 minutes. It also has potential guidelines you would want to know lets say about regulations that might come as early as 2023.

    Firstly, massive respect to D Man, who predicted the November drop months ago as well, but I never feel comfortable unless I have done my full research, so I had to do it nearing November.

    Disclaimer: This is not a buy xxx and sell at xxxx signal. I just aim to make you aware of potential risks involved due to lurking macros, Analytics and some of TA so you know my rationale, making it easier for you to decide if you want to follow.
    In this update we Will debate if the bottom is in (I am leaning that it is not in) so then will also attempt presenting possible $BTC Bottom targets scenarios and a fewer Altcoin names in the end that I expect to stand test of time after bottom is in.


    Before going on to update, for the short term bias Please check out the updates I shared under 'signals' tab on Thursday 13th October 2022. This update is completely independent of the short term bias. Watch those levels closely before you become a bull, I don't know for now where local top will be. Don't discount the levels I've told you to watch.



    ****THE UPDATE



    (GENERAL QnA)

    Q. Why are we not seeing (Uptober) October?
    A. Octobers have historically been green months AS LONG AS we were in a bull market. Go look up, people seem to completely ignore the second part of statement. Still If there is any Uptober, we are in a scalp position from local bottom, would be happy if it plays, lets not be too optimistic.

    Q. Has Crypto Decoupled after what we saw in September?
    A. I don't think so. This narrative completely ignores the fact that Crypto had fallen 75% when others had only fallen less than 25%. Secondly, are we giving No weightage to another fact that Bitcoin ended up testing its prior 2019 ATH before stocks, and for stocks this zone would correspond to 3400-3500 zone which we have tested just now in October's second week - In easier words Bitcoin tapped its demand zone much earlier than stocks as it's more volatile and honestly fell quicker, so what do you expect Bitcoin to do at demand zone? You guessed right, Bounce - but did it do that? No, it was just sideways because other markets were falling and BTC was more or less stuck doing nothing, again on a very strong demand zone Reason why when majority out there signalled a crash or quick Pump going into September FOMC, I instead said it's sideways before anything.. And it was.. for 30 days almost.
    We would likely decouple when we have reached massive adoptions or have put in practice some use case, or have received some kind of crackdown so to say. Right now we have not. Probably not for years.

    Q. Then was this some sort of accumulation?
    A. Maybe yes, maybe not. I would lean that it has much more work to do. It was just a strong demand zone acting as support, we've not had a proper liquidity grab yet to initiate full fledged accumulation which can last from 6-12 months easily. We did see some volume we also observed bigger whales had stopped selling but were they buying? Majority were not. To me it looked more like uncertainty in market, regarding next direction, no bigger moves etc There were some outflows which is cool, but there was general sense of indecisiveness and there was No volatility, remember volatility reflects/grabs interest of players and it was found nowhere.




    (SOME IMPORTANT METRICS)

    #DXY: all these months since July i gave only one range: 110-114 and how precisely it ended up not only being hit but also brought a range. The next direction I would want to watch more, but I'm leaning it can also touch 118-120 before topping out.

    #BTC.Dom: I am Macro Bearish on it, but short term very bullish, reason why I entered you in a Smart BTC.Dom long on FOMC day, it had to go up and is continuing to go up till this day, even though Bitcoin is still there. Smart play, no?

    #OIL: I'm not expert on this topic but it has rejected from early 90's as we speculated. BUT I think it shall have room to shoot up in short term and major supports are around 67-70. But once a Recession is declared, Oil will come down collapsing too because in recessions everything goes down except for Healthcare as people mend their spending behaviours. In short term, as long as a recession is not declared, I'm personally Bullish on Oil due to supply crisis in short term though.

    #Future_Hikes: 75bps anticipated in November which takes us to 4%. Likely scenario is 4.6% by January, that should mean somewhere a 50bps in December or at least 25bps. That means more pain for financial markets. In fact, anything beyond these figures can wreck havoc in economy and risk a hard landing for stocks, but, thankfully is unlikely scenario. How long will these hikes/pause continue? As long as FED hasn't achieved their 2% Target.

    #Real_Estate: is a lagging indicator. Is currently falling, should fall more in developed countries. Buying power goes down, Demand for commodities goes down, resulting in balance between supply and demand because this time they are unable to fix Supply side due to energy crisis, so they will manipulate demand side by making stocks and housing bearish to reduce your buying power before they pivot. HOWEVER, rental costs will likely not come down.

    #QE: the positive side, in 3-6 months from now we would likely start seeing signs of QE. So some relief at end of tunnel.

    #ETH: I told you to avoid it at $16xx and I continue to tell you that just hold on to your cash little more. ETH/BTC is not looking good, you'll get better prices. Longterm yes, bullish on ETH.




    (REASONS BOTTOM IS NOT IN)

    - Midterm elections! FED cares about Inflation coming down, not stocks, because they want to win support of average American. That means they will be as aggressive as it needs them to be for rate hikes, which is good to battle inflation but bad for stocks.


    - 3Months & 2Year yeilds are not yet below 10Year yeilds. Historically that helps signalling bear market bottoms.

    - I believe we already are in a recession, just a matter of time until it is declared. But important thing is FED denies. Why? Because they claim, look despite two negative quarters the unemployment is still falling, and that's right in theory, so what do you make out of this? Exactly - they have more 'excuses' to remain hawkish as long as Average american has job opportunities.

    - most recent CPI fell slightly, but Core CPI has risen, and it is the actual deal. So inflation still needs to be dealt with. Means more risk-off time for markets remains.

    - OPEC decides to cut oil production, that only adds to Russian oil supply issue, that means energy crisis, which means Crypto Mining is less profitable they run risk of shutting down. EU steel mills are also shuttimg down, productivity falls further.

    - Stealing this part from Benjamin Cowen (& paying him respectful Credits): If we take into account the Money supply, there is still a minimum of 14% and around a maximum of further 44% downside left for Bitcoin. That means ($15k-$9k) are two extremes. Given that FED doesn't print more as prior to controlling inflation- if they print early, short term we see recovery but in longrun we can have as long as a decade of slow economic growth. This is why we don't want FED to pivot early. This is why, aggressive QT is good to avoid intra-cyclical inflation hikes. And btw, this was Bitcoin's first Bear Market with FED Printing money.. and so they are now finding themselves selling assets/securities off balance sheet. Fundamentals are struggling.

    - SPR (Petroleum reserves) are depleting to 40 year lows, as they were subsiding oil due to russian supply cuts. This is bad. In decades from now, I believe many people will revert back to agriculture due to energy scarcity unless they work on reducing dependence on Russia for energy... because there are only so many permanent fixes for this. And probably the next Bear Market.. could be a very lengthy bear market specifically for Crypto because crypto has not yet seen multiyear bear market yet like other indexes and is energy reliant too. But this is longer run, It does not mean it'll not recover back, it will, because innovation will find a way, but the Altcoins you Pick for your HODL portfolio for years to come, be mindful of this aspect for them.

    - Russia threatens to use Nuclear weapons in Ukraine, and then China Taiwan are there too, then NATO's fast track; war situations are not easing at all.

    - (Technical) 200WMA which has been bottom many times previous cycles, this time did not provide enough support, so maybe we wick 300WMA ($13.4k) or 400 WMA ($12.8k)?

    - Central banks FUD: Credit Suisse's. (rumours only so far) - as an institution they would have leveraged positions right, that means force liquidations/settlements, could this be a black swan? Time will tell. The next one in line is Deutsche Bank ( again in this entire report only this part is rumoured as there are no official statements on both these yet)

    - SPX closely (ridiculously) follows Job Openings Chart - Job openings recently started falling, so that's likely an indication of Recession upcoming.

    - Running ROI is now at location where it gave leg down in majority of previous bear cycles. Same place where in 2018 it gave leg down too leading to another 50% drop when everyone at $6k thought bottom was in.

    - 3400 spx is how far now? Said this would come only weeks ago at 42xx. Now at 35xx, will go further lower likely.


    - IMF Discouraging crypto adoption in developing countries and developing countries are major players in Crypto as they are usually looking for hedge against their deflating currencies.

    - Terminal price indicator: Around every cycle bottom, price goes below the ribbon which indicates bottom was just recently in, lagging indicator yes, but so far it hasn't yet flashed.

    - Percentage BTC supply in profits currently stands at 50%. On Historic bottoms it has usually been in 40-42% range, so - expect pain or at-least sideways.




    (REASONS BOTTOM MIGHT BE IN)

    - Peak-cycle top indicates it is in.

    - Bank of England printing again, this isn't necessarily good, but this is why you saw that after £'s devaluation, there was historic influx of British buyers to Bitcoin.. They came in looking for Hedge! Hence positivity. Same can be said for Japan and China once they start seeing effects. This can potentially lead to fall of int erest rates in the U.S but not sure if these countries would have enough bargaining power.

    - Hash ribbon indicator has flashed and it does so on historic bottoms, but I will be super cautious with Macros like we are in.

    - UK/Japan buying its debt and bonds back to protect against DXY, For short term they are subsiding many aspects etc.. but longterm this is certainly a trouble and a mistake they could be making. Germany did same mistake.





    (WILL CRYPTO DIE?)

    I'd be worried if only Crypto was falling, right now entire economies are collapsing. Financial systems needed some reset, if you account the Progress of Financial Markets over Money Supply you would be amazed to find out that over past 3 decades it seems like Markets were going up as if just because there was more money in the system, FED was printing more, Speculative assets like Bitcoin when accounted for money supply in the system were only sideways during this time - that means only people with extra money were cautiously investing and that makes sense. Though Lightning network was growing even in bear market. It's just that we needed this reset. So Crypto will not die. It feels this way every bear market. Don't panic.






    (2023 Outlook)

    A) If Fed prints prematurely and/or Unemployment goes up while Inflation continues going up too, then 2023 is very very bearish and depressing But this is rare case I don't think this will happen. What we basically don't want is to see Inflation/Unemployment continuing up once FED starts QE.

    B) Another vague, but possible scenario you should be aware of is, if FED pivots without taking Inflation under control in next FOMC meeting (as UN is pressing US to do that in order to protect other currencies as per Sunshine QE act.), then we will not see lower lows in November, instead then it'll be in later 2023 after some initial pumps and rallies because things like that would drag economy into slow multi-year downtrend despite being good only in short run. Again this is not likely case because thankfully, Powell is very vocal about how FED is keen not to pivot early. Which is good.

    *C) So Likely outlook for 2023 will be: Continued smaller hikes but eventual Pivot from FED, sideways, consolidating, accumulative year for Crypto. They might only pause hikes and may not start cutting them until late 2023 which will still be good. We can expect some rallies but I believe proper bull run doesn't begin until 2024.
    There can be one Dump in 2023, if I speculate around March or May, it wouldn't breach lower lows but it would come from disbelievers who would still be in disbelief that markets have sort of started to reverse after QE. Human behaviour thing, less to do with economy. But, dubious speculation.
    Q1 2023 has chances to bring some relief.





    (SO WHEN SHOULD YOU BUY BITCOIN BACK? Qualitative aspect)

    - Firstly Don't obsess timing bottom, reason I say this is We are currently below 200W MA, maybe you should not completely miss buying anything because historically, every bear market this level was the bottom, only one time it wasn't the bottom and even then when it later bottomed at 300MA, 300MA turned out to be higher price than 200MA only because by the time (months later) 300MA hit, it had moved up. So right now we are already below this level and if nothing, as an investor I look at this and say okay.. this is sort of good entry point? But we do know this is technicals and this time Fundamentals do mot support this idea. So, To tell you, do you remember the $17.6k level SPOT position I made us buy in June? We sold it all at $24k levels but I told you To retain 10% of BTC as a 'maintenance HoDl position' for peace of mind. But this is optional, as we are biased that bottom isn't in. Also Reducing all the noise, eventually it is just collapsing since my $22.8k main short and is on way to final targets.

    - On the contrary this is also FIRST ever time that we are sideways below 200MA for so long.. previously each time it was just a wick and up. Currently it stands just below $22.7k. So can be argued, with this price action maybe we're going 300MA ($13.4k) or 400MA ($12.8k) levels?

    - if we forget downside for some time, and focus on the upside, I can tell you one thing, at very least BTC is likely going to be at its Fair value $35-40k at 2024 halving because historically at each halving, BTC is always at Fair Value if not above it around every halving. This you can also apply to ETH, like i told you at $16xx to avoid it because it was in a zone where its fair value ($7xx) was going to act as mmagnet. So these areas are magnets for halving and bear market events.

    - We are also currently below BTC's fair value undervaluation, so if not market price, maybe the next leg down we are expecting is simply going to be good bargain brother. However right now we are around 40% overvalued, historically it can reach 60-80% undervaluation, so yeah we can wait. Specially with bad Macros. And also if next Quarter a recession gets declared, I wouldn't pretend to know what happens then because previous markets have never seen that. But in next section of this report I'll help you reach some "approximation" of what to expect in recession.

    - Down move can be quick and short lived it would make sense to have SPOT orders laddered.





    (FED & BOTTOMS)

    (WHAT/HOW/WHEN FED PIVOTS - When QE?)
    When Fed pivots, people have better opportunities to borrow and buy financial assets that can bring booming economies/markets.

    But Before they pivot, they look at lagging indicators like:
    A) Housing costs for average American being unaffordable
    B) Unemployment shooting
    C) 3 Month Yields being higher than 10 Year Yields
    Currently we check (A) and are very close to witnessing (C) as well.


    *(WHEN THEY DO PIVOT, WHAT WILL HELP US TIME THE BOTTOM FOR FINANCIAL MARKETS? Assuming a Recession)

    - Bottom for financial markets (in recessions) comes when FED is 'concluding' the Rate Cuts process. Right now they have not even started cutting them, they have not even paused the rates yet and are in-fact only hinting rise until January at very least. But For safety, once we see them pausing rates, we can start buying at good bargain prices. And go heavier when they are done cutting them for a while.

    - Historically in recessions, we do not have to wait for unemployment to peak out or start going lower because thats lagging indicator and markets are forward looking, #SPX bottoms earlier than unemployment peaking, and #BTC in bear markets bottoms earlier than SPX. That tells us, when we see unemployment rising it is good time to buy, and we don't have to wait for its peak because Bitcoin bottoms earlier than SPX and SPX bottoms earlier than Unemployment peaks. Right now, unemployment has just started a very brief rise, nothing special, far below from potential peaks. Lets see what new Data says when it comes in.

    - SPX historically bottoms somewhere middle or 2/3rd of the recession, so this means you don't have to wait for the recession to be over in order to press buy button, then you'll be late to the party.

    - Markets bottom before inflation bottoms and Generally halfway through recession a bottom had occurred as said above.

    Currently all these say that Bottom isn't in, but we are close. But Disclaimer: I have attempted to approximate how SPX reacts in recessions with respect to Unemployment, Inflation and Rate hikes and then compared it with how BTC reacts in bear markets with respect to SPX, to reach this result. Otherwise I have no idea how BTC would react to a recession coz it ain't seen one yet.






    (COINS I BELIEVE CAN SURVIVE TEST OF TIME NEXT CYCLE)

    Brother, before you jump into picking coins, know that Retail crypto bans will come this cycle. Secondly what you saw this week remember BTC was stable but Alts suddenly started bleeding? This is when BTC does nothing for a while so Alts begin to offer exit liquidity into BTC. So Alts can drop drastically. Bear markets are known to flush out Garbage projects for good.

    Keep in Mind these Fundamentals for next cycle:
    - Crypto Regulations for POS & POW
    - EU is leading with the MiCa Bill, it'll be published in FEB 2023, it aims to design approach towards regulating Stable coins and then Altcoins. EU, leads US follows. This is sort of positive and can be catalyst next bull run, as it can bring institutional buys to crypto. At same time if they hint Altcoin crackdown, that will be Toxic.
    - Midterms are here so some pro-crypto politicians can suddenly become active and start hinting regulations. Sort of good though.
    - Privacy coins, as much as I Love them, I think they can unfortunately be hit by tighter destructive Regulations by States because they don't like your privacy, they like surveillance.
    - EU has expressed concerns over how 1% of most Crypto coin holders have 90% voting powers. They will like to change what they believe are "Pseudo democratic" aspects of crypto, which is not entirely bad, but you know that some coins will take hit then.
    - If there will be Regulations regarding Surveillance that can also drive some institutions out which is bad... but still crypto would offer escape from surveillance in many forms - many options- and right now regulators would need years of work to make proper accountable channels. Still, something you should know.
    - Bear markets can be good time to take very small risks with completely new projects whose fundamentals You trust, but don't go too deep. Extremely high risk high reward thing.
    - Not all Altcoins will make it back to ATHs. Write this down, probably not even some of the Top 10 or Top 15. Yes.
    - Focus on Utilities, Technology, Security, ISO200020, maybe privacy too, Cosmos, L1. Someone in chat mentioned ISOTC/307 and it made sense.
    - See if there are projects in which miners have partnerships with Energy Companies because Crypto is energy reliant.
    - Central banks and their Urge to protect Fiat CBDCs which are going to be out there anytime soon.
    - Blackrock and Circle's partnership: a bullish thing for short and midterm but lLongterm this wasn't crypto vision because they are targeting massive adoption at cost of decentralisation.

    As you see 1-2 years from now you'll have to do better job at picking altcoins for HolDing. Here is (rough) list of Alts That I will look forward to Refine around November and December too, and will also prepare orders for you, for now rough names you can start accumulating next leg down, or alternatively just follow the Coins you prefer:

    High risk ( 2 from here)
    #GMX
    #RSR (low confidence)
    #INJ
    #FLUX
    #VRA
    #ANKR
    #DUSK
    #ROSE
    #SNX (unsure of its fundamentals)

    High Liquidity: (3-4 from here)
    #ATOM
    #NEAR
    #DYDX
    #ENS
    #QNT
    #ADA (maybe not so, but it had some silent developments this bear market behind the scenes)
    #ALGO ( Good one, rumours are that MIT is collaborating with FEDnow for the CBDCs testing on its blockchain thats why it was pumping 2 weeks ago)
    #RUNE
    #MATIC

    This is not yet a refined Altcoin list. This also does NOT include what can be potential Gems. And I can be personally biased about them. I do intend to reduce the number of coins in this list though by later this year.





    (SO WHEN SHOULD YOU BUY BITCOIN BACK? Quantitative aspect)

    Levels ( forLate October or Early November 2022)
    #BTC
    $15,900 15%
    $14,500 30%
    $12,800 45% (most reasonable and my favorite one, but then I see almost EVERYONE out there expecting this level which irks me, so would make sense to distribute orders)
    $8900 10%

    #ETH
    $950 20%
    $700 60%
    $620 20%


    #TOTAL
    625B or Below (100%)


    We can go through a painful cleansing process so I'll personally not allocate any more than 20% of my wealth in Crypto. Next Bull run Would be really fruitful because feom 2020 up until this recessionary period would look something like great accumulation on charts when we look back from Future. Most likely 2024 will be a better year if not late 2023.
    tl;dr: "wchodźcie po same kule, bo już za chwileczkę lecimy na księżyc, już za momencik, przysięgam, bardzo proszę kupujcie moje cebulinium i shitcoina"
    Cytuj Sonka napisał Pokaż post
    Cytat został ukryty, ponieważ ignorujesz tego użytkownika. Pokaż cytat.
    ależ nikt się ze mnie nie śmieje przyjacielu,tylko mati z tadkiem mają jeszcze jakieś urojenia
    ---
    Cipsoft ich nienawidzi! Jednym prostym trikiem wskrzesili starą Tibię! ZOBACZ JAK!!!

  5. #4644
    Avatar Sonka
    Data rejestracji
    2007
    Położenie
    Raczej Siedzące.
    Posty
    799
    Siła reputacji
    16

    Domyślny

    Co to za szmata ten szany? Bo wygląda na niezłego zjeba
    Człowiek jest jak stolarz. Stolarz żyje, żyje, a potem umiera. Tak też bywa z człowiekiem.

  6. #4645
    Avatar Taidio
    Data rejestracji
    2009
    Położenie
    Llanfairpwllgwyngyllgogerychwyrndrobwllllantysiliogogogoch
    Wiek
    27
    Posty
    18,846
    Siła reputacji
    26

    Domyślny

    przy tobie to papież

    Szany wruc

  7. #4646
    ★ Użytkownik premium ★
    Avatar tofulover69
    Data rejestracji
    2007
    Położenie
    Gdańsk
    Wiek
    37
    Posty
    13,777
    Siła reputacji
    24

    Domyślny

    czyli na 13k wchodzimy po same kule i ath?

Reklama

Informacje o temacie

Użytkownicy przeglądający temat

Aktualnie 6 użytkowników przegląda ten temat. (0 użytkowników i 6 gości)

Zakładki

Zakładki

Zasady postowania

  • Nie możesz pisać nowych tematów
  • Nie możesz pisać postów
  • Nie możesz używać załączników
  • Nie możesz edytować swoich postów
  •