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nasza cywilizacja cofa się w rozwoju
In futures studies and the history of technology, accelerating change is a perceived increase in the rate of technological change throughout history, which may suggest faster and more profound change in the future and may or may not be accompanied by equally profound social and cultural change.
In his 1999 book The Age of Spiritual Machines, Ray Kurzweil proposed "The Law of Accelerating Returns", according to which the rate of change in a wide variety of evolutionary systems (including but not limited to the growth of technologies) tends to increase exponentially.[9] He gave further focus to this issue in a 2001 essay entitled "The Law of Accelerating Returns".[10] In it, Kurzweil, after Moravec, argued for extending Moore's Law to describe exponential growth of diverse forms of technological progress. Whenever a technology approaches some kind of a barrier, according to Kurzweil, a new technology will be invented to allow us to cross that barrier. He cites numerous past examples of this to substantiate his assertions. He predicts that such paradigm shifts have and will continue to become increasingly common, leading to "technological change so rapid and profound it represents a rupture in the fabric of human history." He believes the Law of Accelerating Returns implies that a technological singularity will occur before the end of the 21st century, around 2045.
Moore's law is the observation that the number of transistors in a dense integrated circuit doubles about every two years. The observation is named after Gordon Moore, the co-founder of Fairchild Semiconductor and Intel, whose 1965 paper described a doubling every year in the number of components per integrated circuit,[2] and projected this rate of growth would continue for at least another decade.[3] In 1975,[4] looking forward to the next decade,[5] he revised the forecast to doubling every two years.[6][7][8] The period is often quoted as 18 months because of a prediction by Intel executive David House, (being a combination of the effect of more transistors and the transistors being faster).
Niestety, ale wszystkie znaki na niebie (glownie) i ziemi mowia, ze nasza cywilizacja mknie do przodu i to w co raz wiekszym tempie.
Nie zauwazamy tego tak gwaltownie z tego wzgledu, ze technologia, ktora dociera do nas - konsumentow - jest mega bardzo w chuj ograniczona. Taki przecietny domowy PC ma pewnie z 10-20 gigaflops gdzie w chwili obecnej pracuje superkomputer IBM (wypuszczony zreszta zupelnie niedawno, kilka dni temu), ktory ma jakies 123
PETAflops
Podobnie z ostatnim odkryciem nVidii i kartami RTX. Mysle, ze takie karty byly dostepne spokojnie 12-15 lat temu. Tyle, ze nie byly oplacalne - temu teraz nagle ludzie mysla, ze wkroczylismy w jakas zupelnie nowa technologie.
Dla przykladu GF 1080 ti ( mokre sny 99% ludzi w pl) 0.355 TFLOPS w 64 bitach i Tesla V100 7 ~ 7.8 TFLOPS. Karty dostepne w kazdej chwili na rynku.
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